북핵문제와 중국 그리고 미국(파이낸셜 타임즈)

자료출처 : Financial Times
제 목 : New Korean war is Beijing nightmare as tensions rise
By James Kynge in Beijing ; Dec 30, 2002

서버마린 요약:

최근 영국의 파이낸셜 타임즈는 북한의 핵개발문제에 대한 중국의 입장과 미국과의 갈등에 대해 기술하고 있다. 미국은 중국이 제재조치에 대한 적극적인 협조를 바라나 중국의 경우 이러한 제재조치가 북한을 더욱더 위기에 봉착시켜 핵개발 심화를 가져올 수 있다고 보고 있다. 또한 경제제재조치에 따른 북한과의 우호적 관계의 악화와 탈북자 문제도 간과할 수 없는 부분이며, 긴장심화가 가져올 동북아시아 경제의 영향력도 고려하고 있어 중국의 난처함을 들어내고 있다.

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US plans to step up financial and political pressure on North Korea if it does not scrap its nuclear weapons programme have put China in a delicate position.

China's acquiescence would be crucial to any effort to bring Kim Jong-il's regime to its knees through economic isolation, because China is an important supplier of food, fuel and consumer goods to North Korea.

But in Beijing's view, slashing the supply of commodities to its neighbour would risk turning a mercurial ally into a vengeful enemy that might soon be able to hit Chinese cities with nuclear bombs. It could also accelerate the migration of North Korean refugees into north-east China, exacerbating a problem that Beijing has been keen to play down.

Caught by this dilemma, China has decided for the moment to sit on the fence. Liu Jianchao, foreign ministry spokesman, acknowledged at the weekend that China was "deeply concerned" by recent developments in the North Korea issue, but refrained from any detailed comments.

China urges dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang to ease tension. But US administration officials said that under plans for "tailored containment" of the North, they would only negotiate if Pyongyang first dismantled its nuclear weapons programme.

North Korea, however, is moving in the opposite direction. It told the United Nations atomic watchdog last week it was preparing to reopen a facility the US believes could be used to extract enough plutonium to make at least six nuclear bombs.

Pyongyang also warned that it would expel UN inspectors from its main nuclear centre.

In the meantime, signs of strain between Beijing and Washington have begun to surface. The China Daily, an official English-language newspaper, criticised as "hawkish" remarks by Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, that the US was prepared to fight a war on two fronts - North Korea and Iraq.

Now, foreign diplomats in Beijing say, the US is pressing China to use whatever leverage it has with its Stalinist northern neighbour to convince Kim Jong-il to abandon brinkmanship. Chinese officials said high-level diplomatic contact between Pyongyang and Beijing had been made in recent days.

Chinese and foreign observers nevertheless said they saw several barriers to progress.

First is that US and Chinese thinking on the issue are far from aligned. Beijing has misgivings over the US idea that isolating North Korea will force it to drop its nuclear programme. "North Korea has been isolated for years. Its main domestic policy is isolationism, or self reliance. If hundreds of thousands of people die of starvation, it will not bring down Kim Jong-il," said one Chinese expert.

Second, China is wary of any move that may escalate tensions on the Korean peninsula, or make a US-North Korean conflict more likely. In the medium and short term, Beijing is concerned at the economic impact growing tension could have on trade and investment in north-east Asia.

In the longer term, diplomats said, China's nightmare would be a US strike on North Korea's nuclear facilities, followed by war between the North and the South, leading to the collapse of the North and potentially bringing US troops to China's border for the first time since the Korean war ended in 1953.

Such a spectre will ensure that Beijing expends as much energy trying to convince Washington to be conciliatory toward Pyongyang as it does in persuading Pyongyang to drop its obduracy toward Washington.