Top 5 of 2002: Worst Predictions

Top 5 of 2002: Worst Predictions
(미국 경제에서 올해의 가장 잘못된 예측 다섯가지)
27 Dec 02

자료출처 : ABCNEWS.com

올해의 미국 경제는 연초의 낙관적이였던 예상에도 불구하고
나쁨에서 더 나빠짐으로 간다.

잘못된예측 5가지
1. 주가오른다.
2. 경제회복된다.
3. 월드컴 파산없다.
4. 주택경기 활황이 끝날 것이다.
5. 유나이티드 항공 주식 사라.

자세한 내용은 아래의 원문을 참고하세요~^^
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The economy went from bad to worse this year, despite so many optimistic predictions from business experts.

1. Stocks Will Soar

2002 was not a year for optimists on Wall Street. One of the biggest optimists was Abby Joseph Cohen, the investment strategist for Goldman Sachs who accurately predicted the rise of the Dow in the late 1990s.

Earlier this year, she predicted the Dow would finish at 11,300 in 2002. In October she scaled that forecast back to 10,800 — yet still wrote in a note to clients: "By many measures, 2002 was a surprisingly good year."

With the Dow now around 8,500, it would take a Christmas miracle for even that prediction to hold.

2. Prosperity Will Return

Most of the optimistic economists gave up on the idea of a strong recovery sometime this fall. But not former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill.

"I continue to believe when we finish this year we're going to be operating at a rate of 3 to 3.5 percent real growth," he said in a speech on Sept. 16 in Portland, Ore. "It's what I believe."

Since that September speech, growth has slowed to a crawl, the unemployment rate has shot up from 5.6 to 6 percent — and O'Neill has lost his job.

3. WorldCom Won't Go Bankrupt

Bernie Ebbers was forced out of his job as CEO of the now bankrupt telecommunications giant WorldCom this year — but not before he predicted a bright financial future for the company back in February:

"WorldCom has a solid base of bill-paying customers, strong fundamentals, a solid balance sheet," Ebbers said. "Bankruptcy … is not a concern."

WorldCom disclosed at the end of June that it had inaccurately accounted for almost $4 billion in routine operating expenses, inflating its profits for five quarters.

Shortly after WorldCom's disclosure, the SEC filed fraud charges against the company. WorldCom filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection at the end of July — the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history.

4. The Housing Boom Is Over

The housing market made history too, with new-home sales soaring to the highest monthly level on record in November at an adjusted annual rate of 1.07 million, according to the Commerce Department. Sales are on track for their best-ever year in 2002, which defies economist Maria Ramirez's prediction that the boom couldn't last.

"I think that the housing markets is going to be more on the flat side this year, I think. The benefits on the big drop in interest rates is really behind us, not ahead of us," she said in January. Ramirez had one of the best forecasting records on Wall Street in 2001, but her predictions for 2002 failed.


5. 'Buy' United Airlines

Finally, legendary investor George Soros would have to admit that buying 2 million shares of United Airlines was not his best piece of crystal-ball work this year. United, of course, is now in bankruptcy. Soros, recently convicted of insider trading in France, is still worth $7 billion.